John Mearsheimer | Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3 | Lex Fridman Podcast
Tubopedia Mission
In this thought-provoking conversation, Lex Fridman engages in a captivating dialogue with John Mearsheimer, a distinguished political scientist, exploring a diverse range of topics from international relations and geopolitical strategy to life, career choices, and mortality. Mearsheimer's expertise shines as he navigates the complexities of realism in global politics, discussing U.S.-China relations, potential proxy conflicts, and the role of nationalism in the decline of historical empires. The conversation takes an unexpected turn into personal realms, where Mearsheimer shares valuable advice on career choices, emphasizing the importance of pursuing one's passion. The Humility-Hubris Index is introduced as a key concept, offering a balanced perspective on confidence and humility in facing life's challenges. The dialogue concludes with reflections on mortality and gratitude, showcasing the profound and multifaceted nature of this engaging exchange. [John Mearsheimer | Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3 | Lex Fridman Podcast](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4wLXNydzeY) ## Power on the International Stage 1. **Power in International Politics:** - Power is the currency of international relations. - States are deeply interested in the balance of power to maximize their control. - In an anarchic system with no higher authority, states must figure out how to protect themselves. - Power enhances survival prospects, and the key building blocks are population size and wealth. 2. **Anarchy in International Relations:** - Anarchy means the absence of hierarchy, not necessarily chaos or violence. - States are like pool balls on a table, and there's no higher authority to turn to in times of trouble. - Thomas Hobbes's concept of the state of nature highlights the competition among individuals for power. - The solution to anarchy is the creation of a state or Leviathan, but there's no world state in international politics. 3. **Role of Military Might:** - Military might is crucial for survival, as it is the ultimate means of protecting a state. - The two main building blocks of power are population size and wealth, but a powerful military is essential for defense. - States with large populations and wealth build powerful militaries to ensure their survival. 4. **Connection between Individual and National Will to Power:** - The will to power in an individual is rooted in individual psychology. - On a national level, the pursuit of power is a structural argument driven by the anarchic nature of the international system. - States, in an anarchic system, have no choice but to compete for power to ensure their survival. 5. **Realism vs. Liberalism:** - Realism and liberalism are two major perspectives in international relations theory. - Realists emphasize power, competition, and war as instruments of statecraft. - Liberal theories, such as democratic peace theory, economic interdependence theory, and liberal institutionalism, suggest more optimistic views of a peaceful world. 6. **Debunking Liberal Theories:** - Democratic peace theory argues that democracies don't fight each other, but realists argue that all states, regardless of their political system, act similarly due to the anarchic structure. - Economic interdependence theory and liberal institutionalism, while promoting peace through prosperity and institutions, may be overridden by security concerns and survival imperatives. 7. **Offensive Realism vs. Defensive Realism:** - Offensive realists (like John Mearsheimer) believe that states actively seek opportunities to gain more power when the likelihood of success is high. - Defensive realists focus on maintaining current power levels, as attempting to gain more power might incur costs and punishment from the system. 8. **Human Nature Realism vs. Structural Realism:** - The divide among realists includes human nature realists (like Hans Morgenthau) who attribute competition and war to inherent human nature. - Structural realists (like Mearsheimer) argue that the structure of the international system, particularly anarchy, is the primary driver of competition and conflict. ## Hitler and Nazi Germany 1. **Hitler and Nazi Germany:** - The discussion touches on the relevance of these theories in explaining historical events, such as the rise of Hitler and Nazi Germany. - Mearsheimer likely emphasizes the structural factors, such as an anarchic system and security concerns, over attributing actions solely to individual leaders or human nature. 1. **Hitler and Offensive Realism:** - Nazi Germany's actions, including the start of World War II, are seen as driven by structural considerations in the context of offensive realism. - The balance of power and Germany's concerns about security are highlighted. 2. **Human Nature Realism vs. Structural Realism:** - Distinction between human nature realists (e.g., Hans Morgenthau) and structural realists (e.g., John Mearsheimer). - Human nature realists attribute aggression to individual psychology, while structural realists focus on the impact of the international system. 3. **Factors Behind Hitler's Actions:** - Structural considerations, such as concerns about the balance of power and security, are emphasized as driving Nazi Germany's actions. - Resentment and Hitler's will to power are acknowledged as additional factors. 4. **Soviet Union in World War II:** - The Soviet Union's fierce resistance in World War II is attributed to facing a genocidal adversary. - The Germans' treatment of Soviet POWs and the genocidal plans for Slavic peoples fueled the Soviets' determination to fight. 5. **Potential Soviet Defeat:** - The discussion includes speculation about what might have happened if the Germans had focused on going deep into Ukraine and the Caucasus instead of Moscow. - The Soviet Union's eventual victory is recognized, but the counterfactual scenario is not dismissed entirely. ## Russia and Ukraine Part I 1. **Conventional Wisdom vs. Evidence:** The conventional wisdom suggests that Putin is an imperialist seeking to conquer Ukraine and expand further into Europe. Mearsheimer argues that there is zero evidence to support this claim. 2. **NATO Expansion:** Mearsheimer emphasizes that NATO expansion, especially into Ukraine, is a primary cause of the conflict. He argues that the West, particularly the U.S., went back on promises made to Russia after the Cold War and continued to push NATO eastward. 3. **Putin's Intentions:** Mearsheimer challenges the idea that Putin aimed to conquer all of Ukraine, citing the impracticality of such an endeavor with the military resources available. He suggests that negotiations in March 2022 indicate Putin's interest in ending the war rather than expanding further. 4. **Security Concerns:** Putin's actions are framed as driven by security concerns rather than imperialistic ambitions. Mearsheimer notes that Russia, historically vulnerable, is more focused on survival, while the West, especially the U.S., may not fully appreciate Russia's perspective. 5. **Power Dynamics:** The conversation delves into whether power has corrupted Putin's judgment over his two decades in office. Mearsheimer, while acknowledging that he hasn't extensively studied Putin's overall performance, suggests that Putin remains a formidable strategist. 6. **Understanding Other Perspectives:** Mearsheimer criticizes the West, particularly the U.S., for not understanding Russia's perspective and for pushing an expansionist agenda that ignores Russia's security concerns. 7. **Empathy in International Relations:** The importance of empathizing with other nations and considering alternative perspectives is highlighted. Mearsheimer notes that Americans often struggle to put themselves in the shoes of other countries, which can lead to strategic miscalculations. 8. **NATO Expansion as a Threat:** The discussion touches on the threat posed by NATO expansion and how it contradicts Russia's security interests. Mearsheimer criticizes the West for not heeding warnings about the potential consequences of such expansion. 9. **Putin's View of the Soviet Union:** Putin's perspective on the dissolution of the Soviet Union is discussed, with Mearsheimer noting that while Putin sees it as a tragedy, he accepts the breakup and the existing European status quo. In summary, Mearsheimer argues that the root cause of the conflict lies in NATO expansion and the failure to understand and address Russia's security concerns. The conversation emphasizes the importance of considering alternative perspectives in international relations. ## Russia and Ukraine Part II 1. **NATO Expansion:** Mearsheimer argued that one of the reasons for the conflict was the expansion of NATO. He mentioned that the West believed bringing more countries, including Ukraine, into NATO would promote peace and prosperity. However, he criticized this policy, stating that it was ultimately foolish and driven by a combination of the belief in NATO's positive impact, the right of sovereign nations to join NATO, and the perceived power to enforce these decisions. 2. **Prospects for Peace:** Mearsheimer expressed pessimism about the prospects for a meaningful peace agreement in Ukraine. He suggested that the best-case scenario might involve a ceasefire leading to a frozen conflict. He anticipated ongoing security competition between Russia, Ukraine, and the West, with potential for further escalation even in a frozen conflict situation. 3. **Leadership and Diplomacy:** Fridman asked whether leaders like Zelensky and Putin could sit down for a conversation to minimize suffering and address security concerns. Mearsheimer acknowledged a slim chance for successful diplomacy if the United States was not involved. He emphasized the importance of Ukraine becoming neutral and severing security ties with the West as part of a potential resolution. 4. **Role of the United States:** Mearsheimer criticized the involvement of the United States in the negotiation process and suggested that U.S. interference, particularly advising Zelensky to walk away from a potential agreement, contributed to the failure of the talks. 5. **Replacing Putin:** Mearsheimer disagreed with the common Western belief that removing Vladimir Putin from power would be the key to ending the conflict. He argued that Putin's replacement would likely be more hawkish and hardline, potentially leading to a more aggressive stance in the war. 6. **Nuclear Weapons and Deterrence:** Mearsheimer shared his past arguments in favor of Ukraine keeping its nuclear weapons in 1993, emphasizing that military might, including a nuclear deterrent, is crucial for maintaining a balance of power and deterring aggression. 7. **Potential Questions for Putin:** Mearsheimer suggested several questions that could be asked if interviewing Vladimir Putin. These questions included asking about his past decisions, trust in Western leaders, strategy for Russia if Ukraine does not agree to neutrality, and the impact of U.S. actions on Russia's relationship with China. Despite the complex and challenging nature of the conflict, Fridman expressed hope for diplomatic solutions and human relations to counteract structural forces. Mearsheimer, while acknowledging the importance of leadership, remained pessimistic about the current state of affairs and the potential for a peaceful resolution. ## Russia and Ukraine Part III Mearsheimer and Fridman delved into the topic of nuclear weapons and their potential use in the context of the Ukraine war. 1. **Manipulation of Risk Strategy:** Mearsheimer explained the concept of a manipulation of risk strategy, citing Thomas Schelling's ideas. He discussed how, in a hypothetical scenario where Russia was losing in Ukraine, they might use a few nuclear weapons strategically to signal resolve and manipulate the risk of escalation. 2. **Limited Nuclear Use:** Mearsheimer argued that limited nuclear use, even using just one weapon in a rural area, could have a significant impact due to the threat of escalation. He emphasized the lack of empirical basis for understanding nuclear escalation dynamics, as the world has thankfully not experienced a nuclear war. 3. **Uncertainty in Escalation:** The conversation touched on the uncertainty and potential unintended consequences of nuclear use, highlighting the rapid and unpredictable nature of escalation. They discussed how misunderstandings, miscommunications, and unintended targets could contribute to the complexity of nuclear crises. 4. **Leadership and Communication:** Fridman emphasized the importance of ongoing communication between leaders to prevent misunderstandings and unintended escalations. Mearsheimer referenced a historical incident during the Cuban missile crisis where a message wasn't received, leading to an unauthorized penetration of Soviet airspace. 5. **Potential U.S. Response:** Mearsheimer discussed potential responses from the U.S. if Russia were to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. He mentioned statements from leaders like Macron and Biden suggesting that the U.S. might not retaliate with nuclear weapons but could respond conventionally. This raised concerns about the risk of a great power war between NATO and Russia. 6. **Escalation Dynamics with NATO at Russia's Border:** The conversation circled back to the fear that Russia experiences when NATO approaches its borders. Mearsheimer discussed the escalation dynamics in a scenario where NATO is not only at Russia's border but engaged in a war, emphasizing the uncertainties and potential dangers inherent in such a situation. 7. **Unintended Consequences:** Both participants acknowledged the potential for unintended consequences in nuclear crises, including missile misses, unexpected targets, and rapid escalation. They highlighted the theoretical nature of discussions on nuclear escalation due to the fortunate lack of empirical experience in nuclear warfare. 8. **Survival of the Human Species:** Fridman touched on the broader perspective of the survival of the human species, contemplating the uniqueness of humanity in the grand scheme of the universe and the challenges of navigating a complex world. The conversation showcased the complexity, uncertainties, and potential dangers associated with nuclear weapons and their use in geopolitical conflicts. ## Israel and Palestine Part I The conversation between Mearsheimer and Fridman revolves around the Israel-Palestine conflict. Here are the key points: 1. **Reason for Hamas Attack:** Mearsheimer suggests that the main reason for the October 7th attack by Hamas on Israel was the ongoing occupation of Palestinian territories. He argues that as long as the occupation persists, Palestinians will resist. Some also hypothesized that the attack was a response to the potential sidelining of Palestinians in the context of the Abraham Accords. 2. **Understanding Retaliation:** Fridman asks whether Hamas fully understood the potential retaliation from Israel. Mearsheimer points out that previous conflicts, such as Operation Cast Lead in 2008-2009, should have made it clear to Hamas that Israel would retaliate forcefully. 3. **Civilian Casualties:** The conversation delves into the significant number of civilian casualties on both sides. Mearsheimer acknowledges the disturbing nature of the conflict, emphasizing the impact on civilians, especially the young population in Gaza. 4. **Two-State Solution:** Mearsheimer advocates for a two-state solution, highlighting its necessity for lasting peace. He notes the historical shift in Israeli political sentiment away from supporting a two-state solution, making it challenging to achieve peace. 5. **Loss of Interest in Two-State Solution:** Mearsheimer attributes the decline of interest in a two-state solution in Israel to a rightward shift in political sentiment. He expresses skepticism about the feasibility of a two-state solution given the current animosity between Israelis and Palestinians. 6. **Hamas's Position:** The discussion touches on Hamas's stance, noting that while they currently advocate for a one-state solution (a Palestinian state), there might be room for convincing them of a two-state solution in the future. 7. **Ethnic Cleansing and Apartheid:** Mearsheimer criticizes the idea of ethnic cleansing, stating that it won't work. He raises concerns about Israel becoming an apartheid state, citing reports from human rights organizations and Israeli media. 8. **Israeli Government's Ideology:** Mearsheimer asserts that the Israeli government, particularly under Netanyahu, is ideologically committed to a greater Israel. This ideological stance, coupled with Palestinian resistance, creates a challenging environment for achieving a two-state solution. 9. **Despair and Hatred:** The conversation concludes with a sense of despair, highlighting the challenges posed by deep-seated hatred and ideological differences on both sides, making a two-state solution increasingly difficult to envision. Overall, the discussion provides insights into the complexities and challenges of the Israel-Palestine conflict, touching on historical, political, and ideological aspects. ## Israel and Palestine Part II In this conversation between John Mearsheimer and Lex Fridman on Israel and Palestine, the key points include: 1. **The Israel Lobby's Influence:** Mearsheimer discusses his controversial book on the Israel Lobby, emphasizing that it's a loose coalition of individuals and organizations that push American policy in a pro-Israel direction. He argues that the lobby's influence is significant and not necessarily in the best interests of the United States. 2. **U.S.-Israel Relationship:** Mearsheimer notes the unprecedented closeness between the U.S. and Israel, highlighting that the lobby contributes to the unconditional support of Israel by the United States, often at the expense of its own national interests. 3. **Two-State Solution Challenges:** The lobby's influence, according to Mearsheimer, hinders the U.S. from effectively pressuring Israel to accept a two-state solution, causing policy conflicts that aren't in the best interests of either the U.S. or Israel. 4. **Motivations of the Lobby:** Mearsheimer distinguishes between the lobby's motivations, pointing out that it's not solely a Jewish lobby, as there are influential Christian Zionists as well. He argues that the primary driver is nationalism rather than religion. 5. **Anti-Zionism vs. Anti-Semitism:** The conversation delves into the distinction between anti-Zionism and anti-Semitism. Mearsheimer disagrees with equating the two, emphasizing that criticism of Israel or Zionism doesn't necessarily make someone anti-Semitic. 6. **Challenges to Open Discourse:** Mearsheimer highlights that the lobby aims to prevent open discourse about Israel, particularly on issues such as the occupation and the historical creation of Israel. He suggests that an open dialogue would reveal aspects that may not be favorable to Israel's image. 7. **Challenges in Discourse:** The complexity of discussing Israel and the lobby is acknowledged, given that criticism can be misconstrued as anti-Semitic, and legitimate concerns may be dismissed as conspiracy theories. 8. **The Silencing Effect:** The lobby's strategy, as discussed by Mearsheimer, involves labeling critics as anti-Semites, creating a silencing effect that discourages open discussion on U.S.-Israel relations. Overall, the conversation explores the nuanced and sensitive dynamics of discussing Israel, the lobby's influence, and the challenges in fostering open discourse on the subject. ## Israel and Palestine Part III 1. **Influence of Interest Groups:** The speakers discuss the influence of American interest groups, particularly those related to Israel. They emphasize the importance of open dialogue and criticize attempts to silence critics. 2. **Antisemitism:** The speakers deny any antisemitic intent in their discussions and express concern that stifling criticism of Israel may lead to increased antisemitism. 3. **Social Dynamics and Tribalism:** The conversation explores the role of social dynamics and tribalism in conflicts, citing examples like Bosnia and East Asia. The idea is that clashes between social groups often result in lasting hatred. 4. **Genocide Comparison:** There's a discussion about the use of the term "genocide" in reference to conflicts, with the speakers providing their perspectives on the Holocaust, Rwanda, and the Israeli-Palestinian situation. 5. **Israeli Actions in Gaza:** Criticism is directed at Israeli actions in Gaza, with the argument that the approach, especially the harm to civilians, is counterproductive and damaging to Israel's global reputation. 6. **U.S. Involvement in Geopolitical Issues:** The conversation extends to U.S. involvement in global conflicts, particularly in Ukraine and the Middle East. The speakers argue for a more measured and strategic approach, expressing concern about the U.S. being overstretched. 7. **China as a Strategic Threat:** The speakers agree on the significance of China as a strategic threat to the United States and express the view that U.S. focus should be directed toward East Asia. 8. **Missed Opportunities:** There's a mention of missed opportunities in handling conflicts, with the assertion that certain decisions, such as pushing Ukraine to join NATO, were counterproductive. 9. **Potential for War with China:** The conversation ends with a question about the possibility of a war with China, to which the response is not explicitly provided. ## China Part I 1. **Possibility of War**: Mearsheimer suggests that there is a serious security competition between the U.S. and China in the 21st century, and there is a real possibility of war, though avoiding it is crucial. 2. **Taiwan Strait as a Barrier**: Mearsheimer highlights the geographical barrier of the Taiwan Strait as a significant obstacle for China to militarily move on Taiwan. Amphibious operations across large bodies of water are challenging. 3. **Importance of Geography**: Geography plays a crucial role in international relations, with large bodies of water acting as strategic barriers. Mearsheimer emphasizes the advantage of having the Pacific Ocean between potential adversaries. 4. **Strategic Importance of Taiwan to the U.S.**: Mearsheimer explains that the U.S. has a strategic interest in preventing China from taking Taiwan. Losing Taiwan could negatively impact the U.S. alliance structure in East Asia and allow China to expand its naval and air capabilities. 5. **Century of Humiliation and Chinese Perspective**: Mearsheimer acknowledges that China sees the Century of Humiliation, involving Japan and the U.S., as a source of humiliation. He emphasizes the need to deter China from invading Taiwan rather than engaging in a war. 6. **Deterrence Strategies**: Mearsheimer discusses deterrence strategies, suggesting that the U.S. should deter China from winning, achieve a stalemate, or make victory for China a pyrrhic one, where they pay a significant price for success. 7. **World with China as the Dominant Superpower**: Mearsheimer, as an American, expresses a preference for the U.S. to remain the most powerful state. He suggests that a world where China dominates Asia while the U.S. dominates the Western hemisphere would likely lead to intense security competition, though not necessarily outright war. 8. **Intense Security Competition**: In a scenario where China dominates Asia and the U.S. dominates the Western hemisphere, Mearsheimer predicts intense security competition with proxy conflicts and wars involving proxies, similar to the Cold War era. ## China Part II 1. **Potential Conflict with China:** The conversation discusses the possibility of conflict between the United States and China, with Taiwan being a potential proxy. The Middle East, especially the Persian Gulf, is also mentioned as a potential area of conflict. 2. **Realism in International Relations:** John Mearsheimer emphasizes the importance of realism in understanding international relations. He argues that while China operates based on realist principles, the United States often approaches global politics from a more liberal perspective, which might create challenges in dealing with China. 3. **Nuclear Deterrence:** The role of nuclear weapons in deterring conflicts is highlighted. The idea is that the mention or subtle rattling of the nuclear saber can influence the behavior of leaders and prevent escalation. 4. **Empires and Nationalism:** The conversation delves into the historical context of empires and their decline. Nationalism is identified as a key factor leading to the dissolution of empires, along with the changing dynamics brought about by the Industrial Revolution. 5. **Role of the United States:** The discussion touches on the role of the United States in the future. Mearsheimer suggests that the U.S. is in good shape due to its population size and the tradition of immigration. He argues that the ability to integrate immigrants has been a historical strength of the U.S. 6. **Importance of Immigration:** Immigration is seen as a positive force for the United States, contributing to its growth and diversity. Mearsheimer argues that the U.S. should continue efforts to integrate immigrants into the mainstream, emphasizing that this has been a historical strength of the country. 7. **Intermarriage and Integration:** The conversation highlights the significance of intermarriage as a factor in promoting integration and eliminating differences among various ethnic and cultural groups. 8. **Challenges in History:** Mearsheimer acknowledges that the integration of different groups was not always smooth in the past, but he emphasizes that challenges were overcome, leading to a more integrated and diverse America. ## Life and Morality 1. **Choosing a Career:** Mearsheimer emphasizes the importance of pursuing a career or occupation that genuinely interests and excites an individual. He advises against succumbing to external pressures, such as parental expectations, and encourages people to find a job that they truly love. 2. **Humility-Hubris Index:** Mearsheimer introduces the concept of the Humility-Hubris Index, which involves maintaining a balance between humility and hubris. He suggests that individuals should have a healthy dose of both qualities — being confident in their abilities (hubris) while also acknowledging their limitations and being open to others' perspectives (humility). 3. **Mortality and Death:** Mearsheimer acknowledges that he doesn't want to die because he enjoys life, but he reflects on the inevitability of mortality. He expresses gratitude for the fulfilling life he has led and recognizes the finite nature of life, stating that nothing is forever. The discussion touches on the realization of mortality as one ages. 4. **Finiteness of Life:** The conversation explores the awareness of the finite nature of life, especially as one grows older. Mearsheimer reflects on the limited number of years left and the contrasting perspective of mortality between youth and old age. 5. **Youthful Energy and Boldness:** Lex Fridman praises Mearsheimer for maintaining youthful energy, boldness, and fearlessness despite potential criticism for presenting bold ideas. Mearsheimer is thanked for not becoming cynical and continuing to engage with the world with excitement and curiosity. 6. **Expressing Gratitude:** Mearsheimer expresses gratitude for the enjoyable aspects of his life, acknowledging that he feels like he has won the lottery. He conveys a desire to make the most of the time he has left while being aware that nothing is permanent. 7. **Closing Remarks:** Lex Fridman expresses gratitude once again for the conversation, commends Mearsheimer for his contributions to understanding and teaching international politics, and thanks him for engaging in a conversation with him.